NEW JERSEY UPDATE - AT 10:48 A.M. ET:  Fox News has a good analysis of what to expect in today's New Jersey election for governor, which may well turn out to be the most exciting race of the day:

Last-minute shifts from independent candidate Chris Daggett could spell success for Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine in the New Jersey governor's race Tuesday. But Republican Chris Christie may still rely on turnout among undecided voters to pull an upset in what has been the closest race of the 2009 off-year election.

A Quinnipiac University poll released Monday found Christie with a 2-point lead over Corzine. Among likely voters, 42 percent backed Christie and 40 percent backed Corzine.

But independent Chris Daggett is still holding on to 12 percent of the vote, according to the poll, and the race's outcome rests on votes from his supporters as well as from undecided constituents.

The survey found that 38 percent of Daggett's supporters said they might change their mind on Election Day. Of the 38 percent thinking about changing their vote, 39 percent said they would back Corzine and 29 percent said they would support Christie.

Christie's 2-point lead is within the margin of error, but marks a gain from a Quinnipiac survey released last week, in which Corzine enjoyed a 5-point lead.

COMMENT:  Democrats usually pull it out in New Jersey, by hook or crook, mostly the latter.  Daggett is a kind of "moderate" type, high-sounding, whose supporters might well prefer the hopeless but well-dressed Corzine to the rougher GOP candidate, Christie.  There are people who choice depends on who they'd rather have at a dinner party.

The fraud issue comes into play if the vote is close.  I'm writing this about 15 miles from the New Jersey border.  Every time I look out the window and see an unmarked truck pass by, I wonder if it's filled with fake ballots, heading over the Tappan Zee Bridge.

November 3, 2009